WS #12060

The dominant signal in this window is the IBM earnings disaster, which is ESCALATING in impact. IBM shares plunged 22-25% after preliminary Q2 revenue of $17.2B missed estimates of $17.85B, and HSBC downgraded the stock to underweight with a $191 target. This marks IBM's worst day since 1961 and its first earnings miss since 2014. Contagion is spreading to Microsoft (MSFT -2.2%) and other software names. Separately, the US-Iran conflict shows DE-ESCALATION on the Hormuz fee front: Trump has backtracked on the 20% cargo fee, replacing it with vague 'trade deals' with Gulf allies, per multiple cross-corroborated sources (Politico, AP, Central News Agency). However, US strikes on Iran continue for a third night, hitting Kish Island infrastructure, and oil prices rose to one-month highs. The Fed's Warsh testimony offered no new rate guidance, with comments on inflation being a 'choice' and QE not inherently inflationary, but no shift in policy stance. Bank earnings were mixed: JPMorgan (+2%) and Goldman Sachs (+7%) beat strongly, while Citigroup fell 5% despite record revenue. Apple was downgraded to Underweight by KeyBanc, adding to tech headwinds. Nvidia received a positive signal as a US trade official confirmed H200 chip shipments to China have restarted, albeit in small quantities. CleanSpark surged 11% on a $6.6B data center lease. The E. Jean Carroll payment is noise for markets.