WS #12062

The dominant signal in this window is the escalating US-Iran conflict, with multiple cross-corroborated sources (BBC, CNBC, Oilprice.com, and various social media) reporting a third night of US strikes on Iran, hitting Kish Island and Bushehr (home to a nuclear power plant), and Iran retaliating against US facilities in Bahrain and Jordan. Oil prices have surged 12% since Friday, with WTI at ~$79 and Brent at ~$85. Trump has reversed his threat of a 20% Hormuz cargo fee, replacing it with vague trade deals with Gulf allies, but the US blockade of Iranian ports resumes today. This is a DE-ESCALATION on the fee front but an ESCALATION on the military front. Separately, IBM's earnings disaster continues to reverberate: the stock is down ~25% on a Q2 warning citing sluggish AI infrastructure spending, dragging down software and IT services stocks broadly. Fed Governor Waller's speech signals concern about rising core inflation (PCE at 3.4% in May), pushing back against the dovish CPI narrative from earlier. New York has imposed a one-year moratorium on large-scale AI data centers, which could impact tech infrastructure plays. Lucid Group is down ~46% on reports it is evaluating strategic alternatives including Chapter 11 bankruptcy, with multiple trading halts. The Clarity Act crypto bill gains momentum as Trump calls for its passage to honor the late Sen. Lindsey Graham. The CDC has issued a health alert for cyclosporiasis, with 5,100 additional reports, and officials are investigating Taco Bell as a potential source, sending Yum Brands shares down nearly 4%.