WS #12061

The dominant signal in this window is the US June CPI report, which came in cooler than expected: headline CPI fell 0.4% month-over-month (biggest drop since April 2020), core CPI was flat at 2.6% YoY vs 2.9% expected. This has sharply revised Fed rate cut expectations, with traders pricing in a more dovish path. Fed Chair Warsh's testimony offered no new rate guidance but emphasized independence and openness to balance sheet reform, which markets interpreted as neutral-to-dovish. Separately, the US-Iran conflict shows DE-ESCALATION on the Hormuz fee front: Trump has backtracked on the 20% cargo fee, replacing it with vague 'trade deals' with Gulf allies, per multiple cross-corroborated sources (Politico, AP, Central News Agency, NBC). However, US strikes on Iran continue for a third night, hitting Kish Island infrastructure, and oil prices rose to one-month highs. The IBM earnings disaster is ongoing but no new data points in this window—carried forward from prior. Nvidia received a positive signal as a US trade official confirmed H200 chip shipments to China have restarted, albeit in small quantities. CleanSpark surged 11% on a $6.6B data center lease. The E. Jean Carroll payment is noise for markets.