WS #12079

The US-Iran conflict continues to escalate with new military actions: US warplanes bombed Iran's Kish Island port, Iran launched retaliatory strikes on US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, and explosions were reported in multiple Iranian cities including Ahvaz and Bandar Abbas. Senate Democrats blocked the NDAA defense bill over the Iran war, marking a significant political development. However, a key counter-signal emerged: Trump walked back his plan to impose a 20% toll on Strait of Hormuz shipping, citing investment deals with Gulf States instead. This de-escalatory move could dampen some of the bearish energy/index thesis. On the corporate side, IBM's disastrous preliminary Q2 results (stock down ~24%) continue to dominate tech headlines, with an investigation launched for securities fraud. SK Hynix ADR surged 27% on its first day of US trading, trading at a 50% premium to its Seoul listing. Okta rose 11% to a new high on sell-side upgrades. The US Treasury deficit ballooned to $120B in June. API crude oil stock showed a smaller draw than expected. The dominant narrative is the US-Iran escalation, which is ESCALATING with new military actions, but the Trump toll reversal acts as a partial counter-signal.