WS #12080

The dominant narrative remains the US-Iran conflict, which is ESCALATING with renewed military actions. The US has reimposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports and launched new strikes, while Iran retaliates against Gulf states and declares a regional oil export ban. However, a key counter-signal emerged: Trump walked back his plan to impose a 20% toll on Strait of Hormuz shipping, citing investment deals with Gulf States instead. This de-escalatory move could dampen some of the bearish energy/index thesis. Oil prices surged ~3% (Brent above $86), and European stocks fell, while US markets were mixed (Nasdaq +0.9% on cooler CPI data, Dow flat). On the corporate side, IBM shares plunged ~25% after a rare preliminary earnings warning, its worst day since 1987, dragging on the Dow. OpenAI is reportedly working on an AI-powered speaker, sending Sonos shares down 3% after-hours. Celcuity gained FDA approval for a breast cancer therapy. The US-Iran conflict remains the primary market driver, with the Strait of Hormuz blockade and oil price spike as the key transmission mechanisms.