WS #12081

The US-Iran conflict continues to escalate, with the US resuming its naval blockade of Iranian ports and launching a fourth consecutive day of strikes, while Iran retaliates against Gulf states and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. A key counter-signal emerged: Trump walked back his proposed 20% toll on Strait of Hormuz shipping, replacing it with vague investment deals from Gulf states, which could dampen some bearish energy/index thesis. Oil prices surged (Brent above $85, WTI above $80) on renewed blockade and attacks on shuttle tankers, killing an Indian seafarer. Separately, IBM shares plunged ~25% after a preliminary Q2 earnings warning, its worst day since 1987, dragging on the Dow. The Nasdaq gained 0.9% on cooler CPI data (June CPI fell to 3.5%), while the Dow was flat. OpenAI is reportedly working on an AI-powered speaker, sending Sonos shares down 3% after-hours. Celcuity gained FDA approval for breast cancer therapy gedatolisib. Senate Democrats blocked the NDAA defense bill over Iran war provisions. The dominant narrative remains the US-Iran conflict, which is ESCALATING, but the Trump toll reversal is a notable de-escalatory counter-signal.