WS #12092

The dominant narrative remains the escalating US-Iran conflict, with multiple sources confirming the US has reimposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports after the interim ceasefire collapsed. Iran has responded by targeting commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, including a UAE oil tanker that killed an Indian crew member. Oil prices rose ~2% to one-month highs (Brent $84.73, WTI $79.34) on supply disruption fears. Trump initially proposed a 20% fee on Hormuz cargo but reversed course within hours after Gulf allies pushed back, replacing it with vague investment promises—a counter-signal that dampens the oil price spike thesis. Separately, IBM plunged ~25% after pre-announcing weak Q2 results, signaling a shift in enterprise IT spending away from software toward AI hardware and cybersecurity. This is a high-significance MAG7 carve-out: IBM's miss contrasts with the broader tech narrative and has specific implications for AI infrastructure plays (NVDA, DELL, CRWD). Senate Democrats blocked the NDAA over Iran escalation, adding political uncertainty. Citi announced a $30B buyback and 12% dividend increase, a positive for financials. Japan's Tankan showed manufacturing sentiment flat but non-manufacturing weakened. The Iran narrative is ESCALATING, with the Hormuz fee reversal acting as a partial counter.