WS #12093
No material new developments in the last 30 minutes. The Iran conflict narrative remains stable with no new escalations or de-escalations. IBM's pre-announcement and Citi's buyback are unchanged from prior coverage. No new counter-signals or non-dominant-narrative developments detected.
Topics
Key developments
- US reimposes naval blockade on Iran, launches strikes; Iran retaliates with missile attacks on Gulf states and commercial shipping
- IBM plunges ~25% on weak Q2 pre-announcement, signaling enterprise IT spending shift from software to AI hardware
- US June CPI comes in at 3.5% YoY, below expectations; Fed rate hike odds for July drop to 17%
- Senate Democrats block NDAA debate over Iran war escalation and Israel provisions
- Citi announces $30B buyback and 12% dividend increase, targeting 10%+ ROE
- Japan July Tankan: manufacturing flat at +13, non-manufacturing weakens to +25 from +32