WS #12094

The dominant narrative in this window is the escalation of US-Iran conflict, with the US resuming strikes and blockade on Iran's ports, and Iran retaliating against Gulf states and shipping. This is a significant escalation from the prior stable ceasefire narrative. However, a counter-signal emerged: Trump backed away from the 20% Hormuz toll plan, saying Gulf investments would replace fees. Meanwhile, US June CPI came in at 3.5% (below 3.8% expected), cooling inflation and boosting markets, with the Nasdaq up 0.9%. The CPI data dampens the bearish macro thesis from oil spike, as it suggests the Fed may pause rate hikes. IBM plunged 25% after warning of weak Q2 revenue, a major company-specific negative. Senate Democrats blocked the NDAA defense bill over Iran war concerns, a political development that may limit further escalation. New York imposed a one-year ban on new hyperscale data centers, impacting tech infrastructure stocks. On the MAG7 front, NVDA rose 4% on AI optimism, while MSFT fell 1.5% on IBM spillover. The overall narrative arc is ESCALATING for Iran conflict, but with a de-escalation counter-signal on Hormuz tolls.