WS #12110

From 500 msgs · 5 key-dev

The dominant theme remains the US-Iran conflict, which is ESCALATING. New data shows Strait of Hormuz crude flows dropped to ~5 million bpd in June (one-third of pre-war normal), and tanker traffic has effectively stalled after IRGC strikes on two VLCCs, with analysts estimating 6 million bpd at risk. Iran expanded targeting to vessels off Oman. Trump stated he is currently not negotiating with Iran, removing hopes of near-term diplomatic resolution. Ukraine opened a new Black Sea campaign, striking 20 Russian vessels including 17 oil tankers, adding to global energy supply disruption. In corporate news, Stripe and Advent International reportedly offered $60.50/share (~$53B) to acquire PayPal, sending PYPL up ~16% premarket. IBM plunged ~20% after reporting preliminary Q2 revenue of ~$17B (missed $18B estimate), with AI bookings over $12B but not enough to offset core weakness. Aehr Test Systems surged ~30% on strong Q4 results and FY27 guidance. The Iran conflict continues to drive oil supply risk, while the PayPal bid and IBM miss are key single-stock movers.

Topics

Key developments

  • Strait of Hormuz crude flows drop to ~5M bpd, one-third of pre-war normal; tanker traffic stalls after IRGC strikes
  • Ukraine strikes 20 Russian vessels in Black Sea, including 17 oil tankers
  • Stripe and Advent bid $60.50/share (~$53B) for PayPal; PYPL surges ~16% premarket
  • IBM preliminary Q2 revenue ~$17B misses $18B estimate; stock plunges ~20%
  • Aehr Test Systems beats Q4 estimates, FY27 guidance above estimates; stock up ~30% premarket