WS #12111

The US-Iran conflict continues to escalate, with new US strikes on Iranian military sites in the Strait of Hormuz and a renewed blockade of Iranian ports. Tanker traffic through the Strait has collapsed after IRGC missile strikes, and oil has risen above $85. Mohamed El-Erian predicts US gas prices will hit $4/gallon by end of July. The US Treasury froze over $130 million in Iran-linked crypto wallets. Ukraine expanded its drone campaign to the Black Sea, hitting 20 Russian vessels including oil tankers, adding to global energy supply disruption. In corporate news, Stripe and Advent reportedly offered $53B to acquire PayPal, sending PYPL up. IBM's historic sell-off continues after its earnings miss, with analysts warning of AI crowding out other IT spending. ASML lifted its 2026 outlook by up to 19% after a blockbuster quarter, with shares up 6% premarket. China's Q2 GDP grew 4.3%, the slowest in nearly four years, boosting the case for stimulus. Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan posted record quarterly revenue driven by AI-fueled trading and investment banking. The dominant theme is the escalating Iran conflict and its impact on energy markets, with second-order effects on airlines, refiners, and consumer stocks.