WS #12118

The dominant signal in this window is a sharp escalation in US-Iran hostilities, with the US launching airstrikes against Iranian naval threats in the Strait of Hormuz and Iran threatening to block all Middle East energy exports. This marks a major escalation from the previous stable narrative, with the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed to most shipping (only 5% of pre-war traffic). The US has also redirected commercial vessels and reimposed a blockade. This geopolitical shock directly counters the disinflationary PPI data from yesterday, as oil supply disruption risks will likely push energy prices higher. Separately, Stripe and Advent International have made a $53 billion+ takeover offer for PayPal at ~$60.50/share, sending PYPL shares up ~19% premarket. The deal includes $17B in equity from Stripe, Advent, and Block. Fed's Williams spoke, indicating rates are well-positioned and inflation has peaked, but the macro tape remains dominated by geopolitics. The US Empire Manufacturing index beat expectations (15.6 vs 9.2 est). The USMCA trade deal is not being renewed, shifting to rolling talks. Russia rejected any multinational force for Ukraine post-peace deal. The Iran conflict narrative is now ESCALATING sharply, with the Strait of Hormuz closure threatening global oil supply and potentially reversing the recent disinflation trend.