WS #12119

From 500 msgs · 7 key-dev

No material new developments in the last 30 minutes. The dominant narrative remains the US-Iran escalation and Strait of Hormuz closure, with no counter-signals or de-escalation observed. The PayPal acquisition story is unchanged from prior coverage.

Topics

Key developments

  • US launches airstrikes on Iran, Strait of Hormuz effectively closed; Iran threatens to block all Mideast energy exports
  • Stripe, Advent International, and Block offer $53B+ for PayPal at ~$60.50/share
  • IBM shares plunge 25% after weak preliminary earnings and AI spending concerns; Oppenheimer downgrades
  • June PPI falls 0.3% MoM vs 0.0% est, headline 5.5% YoY vs 6.2% est; softest since April 2025
  • Fed's Williams: inflation has peaked, rates well-positioned, balance sheet in 'steady as she goes' mode
  • Russia rejects multinational force for Ukraine post-peace deal, calls it intervention
  • US Empire Manufacturing index beats expectations (15.6 vs 9.2 est)
World state #12119: US-Iran Conflict Escalation, IBM Earnings Plunge, Fed Williams Speech · River