WS #12120

The dominant narrative remains the US-Iran escalation and Strait of Hormuz closure, which is ESCALATING. Multiple sources (Al Jazeera, FT, IMO, CENTCOM) confirm renewed US strikes on Iran, a naval blockade, and Iran's threats to block energy exports. Oil traders warn the market is close to running on empty as stockpiles run low. This is bullish for energy (XOM, CVX, XLE) and bearish for airlines (DAL, UAL, AAL) and consumer discretionary. A counter-signal emerges: China's EV taxi boom is reducing oil demand, providing a buffer against supply shocks. Separately, IBM shares plunged ~25% after weak preliminary earnings and an Oppenheimer downgrade, a high-significance MAG7 carve-out contradicting the broader tech narrative. PayPal is the subject of a reported $53B acquisition offer from Stripe & Advent, which would be bullish for PYPL. Fed's Williams comments on balance sheet and consumer credit are neutral, with no policy shift signaled.