WS #12127

The dominant narrative is the escalating US-Iran conflict, with renewed military strikes and attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz driving oil prices higher. This is corroborated by multiple sources: a Louisiana news report warns of gas price impacts, Russia urges citizens in Gulf countries to take precautions, and Iran retaliated by striking an oil storage facility in Kuwait. The IMF Strategy Chief warned that a very long disruption to energy supplies will impact the global economy. However, a potential counter-signal emerged: Trump revealed that Iran called and 'wants to make a deal,' and he reversed his tariff plan on Hormuz shipping, opting instead for a blockade on Iran-linked vessels. This de-escalation signal could cap oil's upside. Separately, IBM stock cratered 25% after a Q2 earnings warning, a major negative for the tech sector. Apple is reportedly hunting for AI chip acquisitions, a bullish signal for AAPL and AI chip makers. Fed Chair Warsh's comments on AI being a long-term job creator and productivity improvements being structurally disinflationary are moderately positive for growth stocks. The EIA reported a crude inventory draw of 1.7M barrels, supporting oil prices. BlackRock surpassed $15 trillion in AUM, a positive for financials. ASML reported strong Q2 results with raised guidance, bullish for semis. The US PPI came in below expectations, reducing the probability of a July rate hike, which is positive for equities. The narrative arc is: US-Iran conflict is ESCALATING but with a potential DE-ESCALATION signal; tech is mixed with IBM crash but ASML beat and Apple AI chip hunt; macro data (PPI, EIA) is supportive.