WS #12128

The dominant narrative remains the US-Iran conflict, which is ESCALATING with renewed military strikes and threats. Trump threatened to destroy Iran's infrastructure unless they negotiate, while Iran retaliated with strikes on targets in the Gulf region. Oil prices are rising again, and GasBuddy warns US drivers could see $4/gal gasoline within days. The IMF Strategy Chief warned that a very long disruption to energy supplies will impact the global economy. However, a potential de-escalation signal emerged: Trump said Iran reached out requesting nuclear negotiations, and he stated there are 'better options' than the Strait of Hormuz for oil transport, including pipelines from Texas and Alaska. This could cap oil's upside. Separately, Apple hit a record high on strong iPhone sales and China AI approval, while IBM's 25% crash continues to weigh on tech. Fed Chair Warsh's comments were mixed: he sees no limit to economic growth, but is not happy with inflation measures and will look at tools including balance sheet and rates. The Bank of Canada held rates steady. ASML reported strong Q2 results with raised guidance, bullish for semis. The EIA weekly inventories report is due. The narrative arc is: US-Iran conflict is ESCALATING but with a potential DE-ESCALATION signal; tech is mixed with Apple strength but IBM crash; macro data (PPI, Warsh comments) is supportive but with inflation concerns.