WS #12193
The US-Iran conflict is ESCALATING sharply. The US military has struck an oil tanker heading to Kharg Island and conducted strikes near Tehran, marking a new phase of direct confrontation. Iran has ordered all vessels to use Tehran-designated routes through the Strait of Hormuz and told Houthis to stand ready to close the Bab el-Mandeb strait, threatening simultaneous disruption of two major oil chokepoints. This has driven US diesel prices above $5/gallon and is fueling war-induced inflation fears. The geopolitical risk is the dominant market driver, with oil supply disruption fears escalating. Countering this, the US economic data was mixed: retail sales (+0.2% M/M) met expectations, jobless claims fell to 208K (below 216K est.), and the Philly Fed Business Index surged to 41.4 (vs 12.5 est.), indicating strong manufacturing activity. Earnings highlights: UnitedHealth smashed Q2 with EPS $6.38 (+30% beat) and raised guidance, Abbott beat and raised, Prologis beat and raised. TSMC reported record profits but capex surge past $60B is testing investor nerves. Uber announced a ~$14.8B takeover bid for Delivery Hero. SpaceX stock fell below IPO price. The macro narrative is dominated by geopolitical escalation, partially offset by strong economic data and earnings beats.
Topics
Key developments
- US strikes Iranian oil tanker and targets near Tehran; Iran orders vessels to use designated Strait route and prepares Houthis to close Bab el-Mandeb
- UnitedHealth Q2 EPS $6.38 (+30% beat), raises full-year guidance
- Uber announces ~$14.8B takeover bid for Delivery Hero, expanding to 99 markets
- TSMC Q2 revenue $40.2B vs $39.3B est., EPS $4.31 vs $3.83 est., but capex surges past $60B testing investor nerves
- SpaceX stock falls below IPO price of $135 for first time, closing at $135.27
- Philly Fed Business Index surges to 41.4 (vs 12.5 est.), indicating strong manufacturing activity