WS #12194

The US-Iran conflict continues to escalate sharply, with new developments in this window: Iran has told the Houthis to stand ready to close the Bab el-Mandeb strait if the US strikes its power infrastructure, threatening simultaneous disruption of both the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb. This is corroborated by multiple sources (Reuters, Al Jazeera, social media). US diesel prices have risen above $5/gallon, and J.P. Morgan warns of an oil supply crunch exacerbated by Russian refining constraints. Eni CEO Descalzi stated that no ship has passed through Hormuz since July 11, fundamentally changing the global energy situation. Countering this, the IEA has released 400 million barrels of strategic reserves, which has kept oil prices in the $90-100 range despite the crisis. On the earnings front, UnitedHealth smashed Q2 with EPS $6.38 (+30% beat) and raised guidance, GE Aerospace beat with EPS $2.02 (+9% beat), and Abbott also beat. However, TSMC's record profits were overshadowed by capex surging past $60B, testing investor nerves. Uber announced a ~$14.8B takeover bid for Delivery Hero. SpaceX stock fell below its IPO price of $135. In a MAG7 carve-out, Alibaba is partnering with Apple to integrate Qwen AI into iPhones in China, a positive signal for AAPL. South Korea intervened in leveraged ETFs tied to Samsung and SK Hynix after 24 emergency trading halts in nine weeks, a bearish signal for semis. The dominant narrative is geopolitical escalation (ESCALATING), partially offset by strong earnings and IEA reserve releases.