WS #12450

The US-Iran conflict continues to escalate, with the ninth consecutive night of US strikes targeting Iranian oil infrastructure, including the Abadan oil hub. War-risk insurance for tankers in the Strait of Hormuz has surged to 10% of hull value, up from 0.25% before the war, and Brent crude has crossed $90/barrel. Iran selectively allows passage to China, Russia, India, Iraq, and Pakistan while charging others, effectively using the chokepoint as a filter. The US has also struck an Iranian nuclear facility and reinstated a naval blockade near the Strait. Trump confirmed the strikes, stating the US hit Iran 'very hard' in honor of three fallen patriots. Separately, Ukraine escalated its drone campaign with a strike on a Russian oil depot near Moscow, adding to geopolitical risk. Alibaba released a preview of its Qwen 3.8 Max model, claiming it is second only to Anthropic's Fable 5, sending BABA up 5.4% in Hong Kong. South Korean retail investors suffered heavy losses as leveraged bets on Samsung and SK Hynix reversed sharply, with the KODEX SK Hynix 2x ETF down ~70% from its June high. China's Zhongji Innolight received approval for an up to $8 billion Hong Kong listing, the largest in Hong Kong this year, sending shares up 8%. The dominant narrative remains the escalating US-Iran conflict, which is bullish for oil and defense, bearish for risk assets and airlines.