WS #12451

The US-Iran conflict continues to escalate with the ninth consecutive night of US strikes on Iran, as confirmed by CENTCOM footage released by Al Jazeera. Oil has returned above $90/barrel, with FT reporting that Iran has hit tankers. The conflict is driving oil prices higher and increasing geopolitical risk. Separately, Ukraine and Russia exchanged heavy strikes: Russia launched one of its largest ballistic missile attacks on Kyiv, while Ukrainian drones hit logistics hubs in the Moscow region and an oil depot. The Russia-Ukraine war is intensifying, adding to energy supply concerns. In the UK, Andy Burnham is expected to become prime minister on July 20, with reports of cabinet formation and policy decisions on digital ID, North Sea oil, and overseas aid, creating near-term political uncertainty. China's central bank kept benchmark rates unchanged, signaling continued economic drag from the property sector. On the AI front, Anthropic's Claude Fable model produced a counterexample to the Jacobian Conjecture, a major mathematical breakthrough that could boost sentiment for AI-related stocks. The dominant narrative remains the escalating US-Iran conflict (ESCALATING), which is bullish for oil and defense, bearish for risk assets and airlines. The Russia-Ukraine war is also ESCALATING, adding to geopolitical risk.