WS #12452

The US-Iran conflict has escalated sharply with the ninth consecutive night of US strikes, now explicitly framed by Trump as retaliation for the deaths of two US service members in Jordan. Iran has responded by closing the Strait of Hormuz, driving Brent crude to $90/barrel. This is a significant escalation (ESCALATING) that is bullish for oil and defense, bearish for risk assets and airlines. Separately, the Russia-Ukraine war continues with massive drone attacks on Moscow (over 400 UAVs) and strikes on oil infrastructure, adding to energy supply concerns. On the corporate front, IBM's earnings miss reveals enterprises cutting software budgets to fund AI hardware, a bearish signal for legacy tech but bullish for AI hardware names like NVDA. TSMC's CFO reiterated the AI 'megatrend' and 2nm ramp, supporting the AI thesis. China's antitrust probe into Trip.com is set to conclude this week with potential fines of 2-6 billion yuan, a negative for the stock. The UK's new PM Andy Burnham is considering cost-of-living interventions, which could weigh on UK-focused equities. India's central bank intervened to support the rupee as crude surge pressures the currency. The dominant narrative remains the escalating US-Iran conflict, with the Strait of Hormuz closure being the most market-moving development.