WS #2501

The US-Iran conflict over the Strait of Hormuz remains the dominant market-moving event, with the situation escalating as the 48-hour ultimatum deadline approaches. New reports indicate the US is planning a weeks-long military operation to reopen the strait, while Iran continues its blockade, corroborated by vessel alerts showing tankers and other ships moored or moving slowly in the region. This prolongs the disruption to 20% of global oil supply, sustaining severe energy market pressures. Concurrently, the International Energy Agency (IEA) is considering a new strategic oil release to counter the supply shock, which could dampen bullish oil price momentum and mitigate broader inflationary impacts. Asian stock markets have already reacted sharply, and the crisis is now affecting policy responses, such as Australia's push for energy ties with Singapore to secure diesel and LNG trade, highlighting global efforts to diversify supply chains. Other developments are secondary but notable. Gold has entered a bear market, falling over 20% from its all-time high, potentially reflecting shifting safe-haven flows amid the geopolitical turmoil or monetary policy shifts. Xiaopeng Motors (XPEV) has formally announced its Robotaxi business unit, targeting commercial operations in H2 2026, which could boost sentiment in the EV and autonomous driving sectors. However, these are overshadowed by the macro shock, which is now driving coordinated international responses to manage energy security and inflation risks. The previous synthesis highlighted immediate risks; this update shows an escalation with military planning and countermeasures in play, increasing uncertainty but also introducing potential offsets to the crisis.