WS #2502

The dominant market-moving signal remains the escalating US-Iran conflict over the Strait of Hormuz, with new developments indicating heightened military and economic risks. The US is reportedly planning a weeks-long military operation to reopen the strait, as Iran's blockade continues, corroborated by multiple vessel alerts showing ships moored or moving slowly in the region. This prolongs the disruption to 20% of global oil supply, sustaining severe energy market pressures. Concurrently, the International Energy Agency (IEA) head warns the world economy faces a 'major threat' from this crisis, with the IEA considering a new strategic oil release to counter the supply shock, which could dampen bullish oil price momentum and mitigate broader inflationary impacts. Other significant developments include a plane crash at New York's LaGuardia Airport, which has closed the airport and reportedly killed at least two people, potentially affecting airline stocks and travel-related sectors. Global markets are showing sharp declines, with indices like the S&P 500 down 1.78%, DAX down 4.77%, and Nikkei down 3.82%, reflecting broad risk-off sentiment driven by the geopolitical turmoil. Gold has entered a bear market, falling over 20% from its all-time high, possibly due to shifting safe-haven flows or monetary policy shifts amid the crisis. These factors combine to create a high-uncertainty environment with direct implications for oil prices, inflation, and global equity markets.