WS #4444

The dominant signal remains the U.S.-Iran conflict, which is showing signs of potential de-escalation. A breaking development from a jetstream source indicates that President Trump may delay military operations against Iran if a path to an agreement emerges, corroborating earlier reports of a ceasefire proposal. This is a significant counter-signal that dampens the bullish oil and bearish consumer/airline thesis, potentially stabilizing energy prices and reducing geopolitical risk premiums. However, the conflict remains active, with reports of Iranian missile strikes on Haifa and Russian/Ukrainian attacks on oil infrastructure, which could sustain volatility. In technology, Nvidia's acquisition of SchedMD (Slurm) is flagged by multiple sources (Benzinga, pro-wire) as sparking fears over fairness in the AI chip race, potentially raising regulatory scrutiny and creating near-term uncertainty for NVDA and the semiconductor sector. This contrasts with the previously noted bullish signal from Samsung's earnings. Additionally, Tesla is reported to have outsold BYD in Q1 2026 in pure EV sales, a positive development for TSLA as it regains global leadership, though this is offset by Chinese regulatory pressures affecting BYD. Macro indicators show Asia risk fading with KOSPI swinging to red and Brent near $112, keeping inflation and FX in focus. The Brazilian government announced a package to contain fuel price rises, including zeroing federal taxes on biodiesel and aviation kerosene and creating subsidies for diesel and LPG, which could dampen inflationary pressures and support consumer sectors. In Indonesia, Cinema XXI (CNMA) approved a Rp980 billion dividend for 2025, a positive for shareholder returns.