WS #4445

The dominant signal remains the U.S.-Iran conflict, which is escalating with new developments. President Trump has reaffirmed his Tuesday 8pm ET deadline to strike Iran's civilian infrastructure (bridges, power plants), stating he is 'not at all' worried about war crimes, as reported by The Guardian and corroborated by jetstream posts. This is a significant escalation from previous de-escalation signals, directly countering the earlier ceasefire proposal and increasing geopolitical risk. Oil prices are rising in response, with jetstream noting 'Oil rises as Trump reaffirms deadline for striking Iran’s power plants, bridges'. Concurrently, the Strait of Hormuz traffic has risen to its highest level since the early days of the war, indicating partial recovery but under Iran's growing influence, as per Anadolu Ajansi. A UN Security Council vote on a watered-down Hormuz resolution is expected Tuesday, but without force authorization, limiting its market impact. In technology, Broadcom has signed a long-term deal with Google to develop custom AI chips through 2031, a positive for AVGO and GOOGL as it diversifies from Nvidia. This follows earlier reports of Nvidia's regulatory scrutiny. Additionally, Apple is facing a lawsuit from YouTube creators (h3h3Productions) for alleged unauthorized data scraping to train AI models, potentially negative for AAPL if it leads to regulatory or reputational issues. In semiconductors, India's smartphone market is hit by massive price hikes (up to 40%) for Vivo, Samsung, Oppo due to chip shortages and the Iran war, bearish for consumer electronics and related supply chains. Macroeconomic impacts are intensifying. The Philippines' inflation spiked to a 20-month high of 4.1% in March due to the oil shock, pressuring consumer sectors. US crude premiums have climbed to record levels as Asia and Europe compete for supply, bullish for energy stocks (XOM, CVX) but bearish for refiners and airlines. AirAsia is raising ticket prices by 40% and cutting capacity due to fuel costs, highlighting broader airline sector pressures. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warns the Iran war could push inflation higher and delay Fed rate cuts, a bearish signal for growth stocks and indices.