WS #4650

The data window reveals a critical escalation in Middle East tensions despite the announced US-Iran ceasefire, with direct implications for energy markets and global inflation. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has opened the door to NATO involvement in reopening the Strait of Hormuz, responding to US pressure, while President Trump has publicly warned Iran against imposing tolls on ships passing through the strait, threatening that oil will flow 'with or without Iran.' This indicates the ceasefire is fragile and logistical hurdles persist, keeping oil supply risks elevated. Concurrently, the IMF's Kristalina Georgieva has warned central banks must be prepared to raise interest rates if the Iran war leads to significant inflationary pressures, signaling a hawkish shift in global monetary policy outlook. In AI infrastructure, Anthropic is reportedly considering building its own AI chips, which could introduce competitive pressure on existing suppliers like Broadcom (AVGO), though a new Google-Intel contract for custom AI chips reinforces Intel's (INTC) positioning in the data center market. A minor but notable development: Volkswagen (VWAGY) will stop producing the electric ID.4 in the US, shifting focus to gasoline-powered models like the new Atlas, reflecting ongoing challenges in EV adoption and potentially bearish for broader EV sentiment.