WS #4651

The data window reveals a critical escalation in Middle East tensions despite the announced US-Iran ceasefire, with direct implications for energy markets and global inflation. Multiple sources confirm Israel has resumed strikes on Lebanon after Netanyahu stated no ceasefire is in place, while Iran's foreign minister accuses Netanyahu of prolonging the war to avoid his corruption trial. This contradicts earlier reports of peace talks and indicates the ceasefire is fragile, keeping oil supply risks elevated. Concurrently, Ukraine has struck a Russian oil-pumping station on the route to Russia's biggest Black Sea export port, triggering a fire, with Ukrainian intelligence claiming attacks have cost Russia nearly $1 billion within a week. These developments directly threaten global oil supply chains, with the Strait of Hormuz carrying roughly 20% of global oil shipments. In response, stock futures are slipping as traders monitor the fragile ceasefire, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures down about 0.2%. The IMF's earlier warning that central banks must raise rates if the Iran war leads to significant inflationary pressures remains relevant, signaling a hawkish shift in global monetary policy outlook. A minor but notable development: Meta has pulled ads aimed at recruiting plaintiffs for social media addiction lawsuits, potentially reducing legal risk exposure.