WS #5824

The Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz blockade remain the dominant macro theme, with the situation escalating. BBC reports a 'dangerous standoff' as rival blockades continue, and Iran's negotiator states reopening the strait is 'not possible' while the US maintains its blockade. This is corroborated by multiple sources including Al Jazeera and GDELT. The IEA warns the Middle East crisis will keep the LNG market tight for years, with an estimated 120 billion cubic meter LNG deficit from 2026-2030. German business sentiment (Ifo) plunged to 84.4, its lowest since May 2020, directly attributed to the Iran crisis. China has placed seven European defense companies on an export control list, including Hensoldt, escalating trade tensions. In corporate news, Meta confirmed layoffs of ~8,000 employees (10% of workforce) to focus on AI investment, corroborated by multiple international sources. DeepSeek released V4, an open-source AI model competing with top-tier models, potentially disrupting the AI landscape. ASML shares fell after TSMC delayed adoption of High-NA EUV machines, wiping $16 billion off market cap. The German Ifo index collapse and IEA LNG warning are the most significant new developments, reinforcing the bearish macro outlook for European equities and energy-sensitive sectors.