WS #5825

The Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz blockade remain the dominant macro theme, with the situation escalating. BBC reports a 'dangerous standoff' as rival blockades continue. Goldman Sachs warns that even if the strait reopens, tanker constraints, well damage, and country-specific risks could significantly delay full production recovery, estimating 57% of pre-war Gulf crude output (14.5 million bpd) is offline. Brent crude rose 1.5% to $100.80/barrel, with European bond yields rising on inflation fears. The Pentagon reportedly explored suspending Spain from NATO over lack of support for Iran operations, though Spain's PM downplayed the threat. China placed seven EU defense firms on an export control list, including Germany's Hensoldt, escalating trade tensions. EU approved a €90 billion loan to Ukraine. In corporate news, SAP reported strong Q1 cloud growth but gave a cautious outlook citing Middle East uncertainty; shares rose 6%. Tesla started production of its Cybercab robotaxi, while Meta and Microsoft confirmed layoffs (8,000 and 8,750 respectively) to fund AI investments. The EU also announced its 20th sanctions package against Russia, including LNG service bans, which could push Russia to cut off LNG supplies to Europe early.