WS #6046

The dominant signal in this window is the escalating geopolitical risk in the Middle East, with reports that Iran proposes reopening the Strait of Hormuz via Pakistani mediators, but Trump is set to hold a security meeting on Iran negotiations, indicating continued deadlock. The Axios report suggests nuclear talks would be pushed to a later stage, so blockade/disruption risk remains. Separately, Trump expressed disappointment with NATO over lack of support after the WHCA dinner shooting, and the DOJ dropped investigation into Jerome Powell, clearing path for Kevin Warsh's Fed chair confirmation. China delays foreign debt sales with $100 billion of bonds due, signaling potential credit stress. The attempted assassination of Trump at the White House correspondents' dinner adds domestic political uncertainty. Overall narrative is ESCALATING geopolitical risk with oil price implications, countered by no de-escalation signals.