WS #6047

The dominant signal in this window is the escalating geopolitical risk in the Middle East, with US-Iran negotiations stalling after Trump cancelled envoy trips to Pakistan. Iran demands lifting of naval blockade and Strait of Hormuz reopening before nuclear talks, while Trump claims Iran's oil infrastructure could 'explode' in 3 days due to blockade. This has driven oil prices higher (Brent ~$107.5, WTI ~$96.2), with Goldman Sachs hiking oil price forecasts on 'extreme' inventory draws. Chevron CEO warns gas prices haven't peaked and jet fuel costs will worsen. The dollar strengthened on safe-haven flows, while gold edged lower on dollar strength and inflation fears. Emerging stocks rose to record highs on AI optimism and Iran offer. Separately, the White House Correspondents' Dinner shooting (suspect's manifesto targeting Trump) adds domestic political uncertainty but appears contained. Low-cost airlines Frontier and Avelo seek $2.5B government aid. China tax authorities rattle metal markets with invoice crackdown. Overall narrative is ESCALATING geopolitical risk with oil price implications, countered by no de-escalation signals.