WS #6220

The dominant macro narrative remains the Iran war and its energy market implications, which is ESCALATING. Multiple sources confirm oil prices surging: WTI near $105, Brent at $115, up ~5% in the session. The EIA reported a larger-than-expected decline in US crude stockpiles, with gasoline and distillate inventories also falling, driving futures higher. US crude exports hit a record above 6 million barrels per day. The White House confirmed discussions on continuing the Iran blockade for months, and a senior Pentagon official reported the US has spent $25 billion on the war. Iran's rial hit a record low of 1.8 million to the dollar. The UAE's exit from OPEC+ adds further uncertainty, though Russia says it will remain in OPEC+. The IAEA warns Iran could access its near weapons-grade uranium stockpile. On the central bank front, the Senate Banking Committee approved Kevin Warsh's nomination for Fed Chair, moving to a full Senate vote. The Fed is expected to pause today, with markets pricing no rate cuts until at least mid-2027. On the MAG7 front, today is a massive earnings day with GOOGL, MSFT, AMZN, and META reporting after the close. Implied moves are large (MSFT 6.9%, META 7.0%). Starbucks (SBUX) reported better-than-expected Q2 results and raised FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance, with shares rising. Seagate (STX) reported better-than-expected Q3 results and issued Q4 guidance above estimates, driving shares higher and prompting analyst upgrades. Micron (MU) surged following Seagate's beat. The Supreme Court struck down Louisiana's congressional map in a 6-3 ruling, limiting the Voting Rights Act, which may have limited direct market impact but adds to political uncertainty. The UK formally declared the London stabbings a terrorist incident, adding to geopolitical unease. Overall, the energy crisis is the dominant force, but tech earnings will be the key catalyst for the next 8 hours.