WS #6221

The dominant macro narrative remains the Iran war and its energy market implications, which is ESCALATING. Oil prices continue to surge, with WTI near $105 and Brent at $115, driven by the ongoing Strait of Hormuz blockade and record US crude exports above 6 million barrels per day. The US Treasury has frozen $344 million in crypto linked to Iran as part of 'Operation Economic Fury', and the Pentagon confirmed the war has cost $25 billion so far. Iran's rial hit a record low, and the White House is discussing continuing the blockade for months. The UAE's exit from OPEC+ adds further uncertainty, though Russia and Kazakhstan confirmed they will remain in OPEC+. Treasury yields hit one-month highs as oil fuels inflation fears, and the Fed is expected to hold rates steady today with no cuts priced until mid-2027. Kevin Warsh's nomination as Fed Chair cleared the Senate Banking Committee. On the MAG7 front, today is a massive earnings day with GOOGL, MSFT, AMZN, and META reporting after the close, with implied moves of 6-7%. Starbucks (SBUX) reported better-than-expected Q2 results and raised guidance, with shares rising and analysts raising price targets. Seagate (STX) surged after strong Q3 earnings and guidance, with Evercore raising its price target to $750. Micron (MU) also rose on the back of Seagate's beat. Robinhood (HOOD) and SoFi (SOFI) stocks sank after disappointing Q1 earnings. The Supreme Court struck down Louisiana's congressional map in a 6-3 ruling, limiting the Voting Rights Act, which may have limited direct market impact but adds to political uncertainty. The UK formally declared the London stabbings a terrorist incident, adding to geopolitical unease. Overall, the energy crisis is the dominant force, but tech earnings will be the key catalyst for the next 8 hours.