WS #6222

The dominant macro narrative remains the Iran war and its energy market implications, which is ESCALATING. Oil prices continue to surge, with Brent crude rising for an eighth consecutive day to above $117, driven by the ongoing Strait of Hormuz blockade and record US crude exports above 6.4 million barrels per day. The Pentagon confirmed the war has cost $25 billion so far. Trump warned Iran to 'get smart soon' and accept a nuclear deal, while reports indicate he has decided to reject Iran's latest proposed deal and pursue a prolonged blockade. The UAE's exit from OPEC+ adds further uncertainty, though Russia confirmed it will remain in OPEC+. German inflation jumped to 2.9% in April as energy costs surged 10%. The Bank of Canada held rates at 2.25% citing the Iran energy shock. Kevin Warsh's nomination as Fed Chair cleared the Senate Banking Committee on a 13-11 party-line vote, putting him on track for confirmation before Powell's term ends May 15. The Fed is expected to hold rates steady today with no cuts priced. On the MAG7 front, today is a massive earnings day with GOOGL, MSFT, AMZN, and META reporting after the close, with implied moves of 6-7%. Meta's capex guide of $115-135 billion for 2026 signals aggressive AI spending. Alphabet investors pushed for safeguards on government use of its cloud and AI tech. General Dynamics raised its profit outlook on strong Q1 results. Bloom Energy crushed Q1 with a 388% earnings surprise, boosting Plug Power and the hydrogen sector. Seagate surged on strong Q3 earnings with Wells Fargo raising its price target to $700. Starbucks reported better-than-expected Q2 results and raised guidance. The Supreme Court struck down Louisiana's congressional map in a 6-3 ruling, limiting the Voting Rights Act, which may have limited direct market impact but adds to political uncertainty. The London stabbings were formally declared a terrorist incident. Overall, the energy crisis is the dominant force, but tech earnings will be the key catalyst for the next 8 hours.