WS #6247

The dominant signal in this window is the mega-cap tech earnings after the close, with mixed reactions. Alphabet (GOOGL) reported strong Q1 results with revenue of $109.9B beating estimates, Google Cloud revenue up 63%, and the company raised its quarterly dividend. However, Alphabet CFO guided capex of $180B-$190B for the year, a significant increase. Meta (META) beat Q1 estimates but shares slid after raising 2026 capex guidance to $125B-$145B, spooking investors. Amazon (AMZN) reported a massive EPS beat of $2.78 vs $1.62 estimate, with AWS revenue up 28% to $37.6B, but shares traded lower. Microsoft (MSFT) beat estimates with Azure up 39% and AI revenue run rate of $37B. Qualcomm (QCOM) beat estimates and authorized a new $20B buyback, with management indicating it won hyperscaler business. Oil prices surged with Brent hitting $120, WTI up 8% to $108, driven by Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz blockade. The Fed held rates steady at 3.75% as expected. The EU warned the energy crisis from the Iran war could last years. Fertilizer prices have doubled since the Strait closed. The Iran war narrative is ESCALATING with oil prices continuing to spike, no ceasefire in sight, and the Israeli navy intercepting Gaza-bound aid flotilla. The tech earnings narrative is STABLE but with mixed after-hours reactions. The MAG7 carve-out: GOOGL and MSFT are up after hours, while META and AMZN are down, contradicting the macro tech rally thesis.