WS #6248

The dominant signal in this window is the escalation of the Iran conflict, with Brent crude oil surging to $119-$120 per barrel, the highest since 2022, as the US blockade of Iranian ports and Strait of Hormuz closure continues. The Pentagon disclosed the war has cost $25 billion so far, mostly in munitions. The US is seeking to deploy hypersonic missiles against Iran for the first time, and Trump told Netanyahu to limit Lebanon strikes to 'surgical' as ceasefire falters. This is a clear ESCALATION of the Iran war narrative. Counter-signal: White House officials are traveling to Venezuela for energy/mining agreements, and BP signed a gas exploration deal with Venezuela, potentially opening alternative supply sources. The Fed held rates steady at 3.75% with a record 4 dissents, and Powell indicated he will remain on the board after his term ends May 15, creating political tension. Mega-cap tech earnings after-hours show a split: GOOGL up ~7% on strong cloud revenue and AI demand, but CFO guided 2027 capex to 'significantly increase' and expects a low single-digit headwind to cloud margins from the Wiz acquisition. META down 6% on raised 2026 AI capex to $125B-$145B. AMZN down 2% despite massive EPS beat, as capex of $44.2B slightly exceeded expectations. MSFT down 2% despite beat, with capex of $31.9B below consensus. QCOM surged 12% on beat and auto/AI growth. Ford beat Q1 estimates but faces sizeable EV loss. Chipotle jumped 6.2% on surprise same-store sales gain. The tech earnings narrative is STABLE but with divergent after-hours moves. The MAG7 carve-out: GOOGL and QCOM are strong, while META and AMZN are weak, contradicting a uniform tech rally thesis.