WS #6323

The dominant narrative remains the Iran war and its impact on oil prices and global supply chains, with the situation ESCALATING. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, with traffic down over 90% and 850+ vessels trapped, and oil prices could hit $150. The War Powers Act deadline expired today, with the administration arguing the ceasefire pauses the clock, creating legal uncertainty. Chevron and Exxon beat earnings estimates on higher oil prices, but production outages from the war are a headwind. The fertilizer crisis is deepening, with Yara's CEO warning of up to 10 billion lost meals per week. On the corporate side, Apple reported a strong quarter with revenue up 17% and issued above-consensus Q3 guidance, but warned of rising memory costs and Mac shortages. Meta plans to lay off 10% of its workforce, with Zuckerberg explicitly linking cuts to AI capex. The Pentagon struck deals with Nvidia, Microsoft, and AWS for classified military AI use. Tesla sales rebounded in several European markets in April. The EU-Mercosur trade deal entered into force, bullish for Brazilian exporters but bearish for European farmers. Japan's FX intervention continues as a short-term fix for the yen. The prevailing macro thesis of oil-driven inflation and geopolitical risk is intensifying, with no major counter-signals to the bearish macro narrative detected in this window. New developments in this window: Trump vows to maintain naval blockade on Iran, and the administration argues the war has 'terminated' to avoid the 60-day War Powers deadline, creating legal uncertainty. The UAE's exit from OPEC exposes a deepening rift with Saudi Arabia, potentially leading to a price war and increased supply. Ukrainian drone strikes continue to cripple Russian oil processing, pushing it to lowest since 2009. The Pentagon signed AI deals with Nvidia, Microsoft, AWS, and Reflection AI for classified work. Exxon and Chevron both beat Q1 estimates, with Exxon's Guyana and Permian production offsetting Middle East losses. Apple's strong earnings and guidance are a positive signal for tech, but rising memory costs are a headwind. The eurozone economy unexpectedly slowed in Q1, raising stagflation risks. Morgan Stanley expects the Fed to hold rates until early 2027. The Japanese yen strengthened on FX intervention, but concerns remain. Bitcoin ETFs saw $2B inflows in April. Cboe Global Markets reported record Q1 results and raised guidance. LyondellBasell's CEO warned of lasting impact from Middle East supply shock. The US national debt exceeded GDP for the first time since WWII.