WS #6324

The dominant narrative remains the Iran war and its impact on oil prices and global supply chains, with the situation showing signs of potential de-escalation. Iran has sent a new proposal to the US via Pakistani mediators, and crude futures fell on the report, indicating a possible diplomatic off-ramp. However, Trump vows to maintain the naval blockade, and the US weighs potential military strikes, creating a mixed picture. ExxonMobil CEO confirmed the Strait of Hormuz outage affects about 15% of the company's production capacity, while Chevron CEO warns the global energy system is under 'extreme stress'. The Fed's FOMC statement passed with 8-4 dissent, the largest since 1992, with Kashkari and Hammack opposing the easing bias due to inflation risks from the oil shock. Kashkari explicitly warned that rate hikes may be needed. The Pentagon signed AI deals with Nvidia, Microsoft, AWS, and Reflection for classified work, a bullish signal for defense AI. Apple reported strong earnings with above-consensus Q3 guidance, but warned of Mac shortages. Estee Lauder plans to cut up to 3,000 more jobs and raised its annual profit forecast, sending shares up 11% premarket. The EU-Mercosur trade deal entered into force, bullish for Brazilian exporters but bearish for European farmers. The UAE's exit from OPEC exposes a deepening rift with Saudi Arabia, potentially leading to increased supply. Ukrainian drone strikes continue to cripple Russian oil processing, pushing it to lowest since 2009. The narrative arc is MIXED: the Iran peace proposal is a counter-signal to the bearish oil thesis, but the Fed dissent and blockade continuation keep risks elevated.