WS #6429

The dominant narrative remains the Iran-US war and its cascading economic effects, with the Strait of Hormuz closure continuing to disrupt global oil supply. The key development in this window is the OPEC+ decision to increase production quotas by 188,000 bpd for June, but this is largely symbolic as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, preventing actual output increases from Gulf producers. Multiple sources confirm this is a 'paper increase' with no real market impact. Separately, Iran has submitted a new 14-point peace proposal calling for an end to the war within 30 days, including lifting the blockade and sanctions, but Trump has expressed skepticism, saying he 'can't imagine it would be acceptable.' The IRGC has stated Trump must choose between 'an impossible military operation or a bad deal.' The US has announced a drawdown of 5,000 troops from Germany, escalating transatlantic tensions. Spirit Airlines has officially shut down after bailout talks failed, becoming the first major casualty of the fuel price spike. Apple warned of higher memory costs that could increase product prices, while Meta's capex guidance remains elevated. The UAE has reopened its airspace after two months of restrictions. The ADB announced a $70 billion plan for energy and digital infrastructure in Asia-Pacific. The S&P 500 hit a new all-time high, but breadth is weak. Oil prices remain elevated with Brent around $110, and El-Erian warned of a global recession within 4-8 weeks if the Strait remains closed.