WS #6430

The dominant narrative remains the Iran-US war and the Strait of Hormuz closure, but this window brings several new developments. Ukraine has launched a major drone strike on Russia's Primorsk oil terminal and shadow fleet tankers, confirmed by multiple sources including Zelensky, which could further tighten global oil supply. The OPEC+ decision to increase production by 188,000 bpd in June is widely reported as symbolic and ineffective due to the Hormuz blockade, with analysts noting it cannot materially impact supply. Oil prices are surging toward $120, with analysts warning of $150-$200. The US has announced a drawdown of 5,000+ troops from Germany, escalating transatlantic tensions. Oracle is reportedly laying off up to 30,000 employees globally as it transitions to AI systems. Meta's Q1 earnings show AI driving engagement and ad gains, with daily active users across its platforms declining by 20 million, attributed to Iran's internet shutdown and Russian restrictions. Berkshire Hathaway's cash pile reached a record $397 billion in Q1. The UAE's ADNOC has pledged $55 billion in new projects by 2028 following its exit from OPEC. China has ordered non-compliance with US sanctions on five Chinese oil refineries, marking a new stage in pushback against American long-arm jurisdiction. Iran continues to evade the US blockade, with a supertanker carrying $220 million worth of oil reaching the Asia-Pacific region. Paul Krugman has warned that the Hormuz shutdown will paralyze the global economy and trigger a worse crisis than 1973. The narrative is ESCALATING on the oil supply crisis, with Ukraine's strikes adding a new dimension of supply disruption risk.