WS #6680

The dominant narrative is a sharp de-escalation in US-Iran tensions, with multiple high-signal sources corroborating a peace proposal under review. Bloomberg reports oil steadying as the US and Iran weigh a fresh proposal to end the war, while the NYT confirms Iran is reviewing a US peace proposal. This is reinforced by Polymarket contracts on a US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31 and Strait of Hormuz normalization, and a Bloomberg headline stating stocks and bonds rally on hopes the Iran war is nearing an end. The market response is evident: Nikkei futures surged to 62,155 vs pre-holiday cash close of 59,513, indicating a strong risk-on open for Japanese equities. Gold holds gains as inflation concerns ease. This de-escalation narrative is the primary signal, countering the prior bearish oil/geopolitical risk thesis. Separately, a suspicious $1.7 billion oil contract trade ahead of an Axios report that sent oil prices lower raises market integrity concerns. On the corporate front, Joby Aviation (JOBY) surged 21% on a Q1 earnings beat with revenue of $24M vs ~$20M estimate, strong cash position, and progress toward 2026 commercial air taxi launch. Curtiss-Wright (CW) raised FY2026 guidance on defense strength. McEwen Mining (MUX) beat Q1 estimates. The SEC's crypto-friendly stance is highlighted by Nasdaq's president and DTCC's tokenization plans. The overall narrative is ESCALATING toward de-escalation on the geopolitical front, with risk-on sentiment prevailing.