WS #6681

The dominant narrative remains the de-escalation of US-Iran tensions, with multiple high-signal sources corroborating progress toward a deal. Bloomberg reports stocks and bonds rallying on hopes the Iran war is nearing an end, while Axios confirms the Trump administration and Iran are moving towards a deal similar to the Obama-era nuclear deal. Polymarket contracts show active trading on US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31 and Strait of Hormuz normalization. This narrative is ESCALATING toward resolution, with the market pricing in risk-on sentiment. However, a counter-signal emerges: the Russian Foreign Ministry orders evacuation of diplomatic staff in Kyiv amid threat of mass strike, and Israeli military intercepts an aerial target from Lebanon, indicating elevated geopolitical risks elsewhere. On the corporate front, Joby Aviation (JOBY) surged 21% on Q1 earnings beat with revenue of $24M vs ~$20M estimate, strong cash position, and progress toward 2026 commercial air taxi launch. Curtiss-Wright (CW) raised FY2026 guidance on defense strength. McEwen Mining (MUX) beat Q1 estimates. Tesla Semi lands a 370-unit order, signaling commercial traction. The SEC's crypto-friendly stance is highlighted by Nasdaq's president and DTCC's tokenization plans. A suspicious $1.7 billion oil contract trade ahead of an Axios report that sent oil prices lower raises market integrity concerns. Overall, the geopolitical de-escalation narrative is the primary signal, with risk-on sentiment prevailing, but new geopolitical flashpoints in Ukraine and Lebanon warrant monitoring.