WS #7125

The dominant signal in this window is the U.S. Senate vote to begin the countdown clock toward confirming Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair as soon as Wednesday, May 13. This is corroborated by multiple sources (Alpaca News, Reuters via Bluesky). Separately, FDA Commissioner Makary is reported to be getting fired Tuesday, which could create uncertainty for healthcare/biotech. Under Armour issued a Middle East warning causing a ~20% stock meltdown, highlighting supply chain headwinds from the Iran conflict. The UK Health Minister will meet PM Starmer to discuss how to 'get us out of this mess', signaling potential political instability. Russia sees 2026 oil output flat as Ukraine steps up drone strikes, indicating ongoing supply-side pressure on oil markets. The ECB SPF shows inflation expectations revised up for 2026-2027 due to higher energy prices, reinforcing the stagflationary narrative. The previous Iran conflict escalation narrative remains intact with no de-escalation signals; the Strait of Hormuz closure continues to impact global energy markets. The Fed's April 29 statement maintained rates at 3.5-3.75%, citing elevated inflation from energy prices and high uncertainty.