WS #7126

The dominant signal in this window is the Senate confirmation of Kevin Warsh to the Fed Board, with a separate vote for Chair expected Wednesday. This is corroborated by multiple sources (CoinDesk, Alpaca News, C-SPAN). Separately, FDA Commissioner Makary is resigning, creating near-term uncertainty for healthcare/biotech. Under Armour issued a Middle East warning causing a ~20% stock meltdown, highlighting supply chain headwinds from the Iran conflict. The UK Health Minister will meet PM Starmer to discuss how to 'get us out of this mess', signaling potential political instability. Russia sees 2026 oil output flat as Ukraine steps up drone strikes, indicating ongoing supply-side pressure on oil markets. The ECB SPF shows inflation expectations revised up for 2026-2027 due to higher energy prices, reinforcing the stagflationary narrative. The previous Iran conflict escalation narrative remains intact with no de-escalation signals; the Strait of Hormuz closure continues to impact global energy markets. The Fed's April 29 statement maintained rates at 3.5-3.75%, citing elevated inflation from energy prices and high uncertainty. Key cross-source corroboration: Warsh confirmation (CoinDesk, Alpaca News, C-SPAN), Makary resignation (NBC, STAT News, Seeking Alpha), Under Armour warning (Benzinga, Alpaca News). The Nasdaq 100 dipped on hot CPI (3.8%), with Sandisk and Micron tumbling 9%, while the 30-year Treasury yield breached 5%. Copper is defying the 'war discount' and nearing all-time highs on supply crunch. Oil is trading higher on reports Trump may resume strikes on Iran. The yield curve has steepened, raising concerns about diversification benefits. The Iran war's costliest tax is uncertainty, not inflation, per MarketWatch.