WS #7127

The dominant signal in this window is the Senate confirmation of Kevin Warsh to the Fed Board (51-45 vote), with a separate vote for Chair expected Wednesday. This is corroborated by multiple sources (CoinDesk, Alpaca News, C-SPAN via Bluesky). Separately, FDA Commissioner Makary has resigned, with Kyle Diamantas named acting commissioner, creating near-term uncertainty for healthcare/biotech. Under Armour issued a weak FY2027 guidance (GAAP EPS $(0.04)-$0.00 vs $0.18 est), causing a ~20% stock meltdown, highlighting supply chain headwinds from the Iran conflict. Oil is trading higher on reports Trump may resume strikes on Iran, with Brent crude nearing $110. The Nasdaq 100 dipped on hot CPI (3.8%), with Sandisk and Micron tumbling 9%, while the 30-year Treasury yield breached 5%. Copper is defying the 'war discount' and nearing all-time highs on supply crunch. The yield curve has steepened, raising concerns about diversification benefits. The Iran war's costliest tax is uncertainty, not inflation, per MarketWatch. The previous Iran conflict escalation narrative remains intact with no de-escalation signals; the Strait of Hormuz closure continues to impact global energy markets. The Fed's April 29 statement maintained rates at 3.5-3.75%, citing elevated inflation from energy prices and high uncertainty. Markets now price a 37% chance of a Fed rate hike by year-end.