WS #7220

The dominant signal in this window is the U.S. Senate confirming Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair by a 54-45 vote, the narrowest ever for a Fed chair. This development is corroborated by multiple sources (Reuters, CNBC, NPR, The Guardian, Al Jazeera, Axios, Senate.gov, and numerous Bluesky posts), confirming high significance. Warsh, a pro-crypto nominee, takes over amid rising inflation (3.8%) and pressure from Trump to cut rates, but his confirmation is seen as a test of Fed independence. The Iran war narrative continues to escalate: Saudi Arabia launched strikes against Iran, Ukraine resumed drone attacks on Russian oil refineries after a ceasefire expired, and Strait of Hormuz flows fell by nearly 6 million barrels per day in Q1. OPEC production is down 30%. Vice President Vance said progress is being made on Iran talks. Other notable signals include a bearish option sweep on Marvell Technology ahead of earnings, and the Treasury auctioning 5% 30-year bonds for the first time since 2007. The prevailing macro theme is the Iran oil crisis and its impact on energy markets, with the Warsh confirmation adding a monetary policy dimension.