WS #7221

The dominant signal in this window is the U.S. Senate confirming Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair by a 54-45 vote, the narrowest ever for a Fed chair. This development is corroborated by multiple sources (Reuters, CNBC, NPR, The Guardian, Al Jazeera, Axios, Senate.gov, and numerous Bluesky posts), confirming high significance. Warsh, a pro-crypto nominee, takes over amid rising inflation (3.8%) and pressure from Trump to cut rates, but his confirmation is seen as a test of Fed independence. The Iran war narrative continues to escalate: Saudi Arabia launched strikes against Iran, Ukraine resumed drone attacks on Russian oil refineries after a ceasefire expired, and Strait of Hormuz flows fell by nearly 6 million barrels per day in Q1. OPEC production is down 30%. Vice President Vance said progress is being made on Iran talks. Other notable signals include a bearish option sweep on Marvell Technology ahead of earnings, and the Treasury auctioning 5% 30-year bonds for the first time since 2007. The prevailing macro theme is the Iran oil crisis and its impact on energy markets, with the Warsh confirmation adding a monetary policy dimension. A new development in this window is a bombshell report from Culper Research alleging Nvidia's China revenue never went to zero, citing Alibaba financing and diversion. This contradicts the prevailing narrative of Nvidia's China business being fully cut off and could have significant implications for NVDA stock. Additionally, the Senate rejected an Iran War Powers Resolution (49-50), with Fetterman as the lone Democrat voting against, indicating continued escalation risk. The UK deployed HMS Dragon and Typhoon jets to the Strait of Hormuz, and a discharge petition for Ukraine aid secured 218 signatures, forcing a floor vote. These developments suggest the geopolitical situation is escalating rather than de-escalating.