WS #7263

The dominant signal in this window is the escalating Strait of Hormuz crisis, with a new vessel seizure reported by UKMTO and corroborated by multiple sources, including a Bloomberg report on China fuel demand pressure and a procurement disruption note citing PCB prices up ~40% and helium shortages. This re-escalates oil supply fears and counters the prior narrative of trade progress from the Trump-Xi summit. Separately, the US has reportedly cleared Nvidia H200 sales to Alibaba, Tencent, ByteDance, and others, a significant de-escalation in chip export controls that directly boosts Chinese tech and AI stocks, and provides a counter-signal to the bearish trade war thesis. The UK political crisis is intensifying, with Angela Rayner cleared by HMRC and potential leadership challengers jostling, which could weigh on UK assets. The Trump-Xi summit continues with positive framing but no new trade deal details, while China warns on Taiwan. The narrative arc for the Strait of Hormuz crisis is ESCALATING (new vessel seizure), for Nvidia H200 clearance it is NEW (de-escalation in chip controls), and for UK politics it is ESCALATING (leadership challenge imminent).