WS #7264

The dominant signal in this window is the escalating UK political crisis, with Health Secretary Wes Streeting expected to launch a leadership challenge against PM Keir Starmer as soon as Thursday, corroborated by multiple BBC articles and a Bloomberg headline on bond buyer concerns. This is a high-significance development that could weigh on UK assets (GBP, UK equities) and create uncertainty. Separately, the Strait of Hormuz crisis continues to impact oil markets: a tanker carrying crude to Japan has passed through the strait (only the second since strikes began), but IATA warns higher European air fares are 'inevitable' due to jet fuel costs, and Turkey has lifted its year-end inflation target to 24% citing the Iran war. The Trump-Xi summit is ongoing with positive framing but no new trade deal details; Taiwan's government says it is not surprised by China's statements. Other signals include: Latvia's PM resigning after junior party withdraws support, Israel striking Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, and China renewing import licenses for US beef plants. The narrative arc for the UK political crisis is ESCALATING (leadership challenge imminent), for the Strait of Hormuz crisis it is STABLE (continued disruption but no new escalation), and for the Trump-Xi summit it is STABLE (positive tone, no breakthroughs).