WS #7642

The dominant narrative in this window is the escalation of Iran-related geopolitical tensions, with multiple cross-corroborated signals pointing to a deteriorating situation. Oil prices are swinging as a UAE nuclear plant strike and stalled Iran diplomacy roil markets, with WTI topping $106. The US has extended a Russian oil sanctions waiver to alleviate supply squeeze, and the Treasury granted a 30-day waiver for stranded Russian oil. Japan's Finance Minister Katayama warned of speculative moves in financial markets and oil price volatility affecting forex. Meanwhile, the Fed transition timeline is confirmed: Kevin Warsh will be sworn in as Fed chair on Friday, succeeding Powell. On the MAG7 front, Apple announced a special event on June 8, likely for WWDC, which is a positive catalyst. Berkshire Hathaway's Q1 2026 13F showed new positions in GOOG, DAL, and M, while exiting AMZN and GOOGL. The Nasdaq 100 dropped over 1% on AI capex jitters, with AMAT, MU, ORCL, and Vertiv cratering. Royal Caribbean fell after Mexico ordered a review of its water park project. Crypto funds saw $1B in outflows amid risk-off sentiment. The prevailing macro theme is ESCALATING geopolitical risk driving oil higher and equities lower, partially offset by the Fed transition and Apple's event.